ArtificialOpenAI is DEAD. RIP 2015-2027
Let me put it bluntly: If tomorrow OpenAI releases the finest video generator, the sharpest image creator, the most capable general text LLM, the strongest programming model, the deepest reasoning system, and they unveil top-tier music production, they're still finished. They cannot survive this atmosphere.
OpenAI will become the first company with a valuation exceeding $500 billion to collapse without ever reporting an annual profit.
WHY?
Even if they seize the crown tomorrow, at the current rate of AI improvement, they'll maintain their lead for roughly two months. Maybe three if luck smiles. Then comes the inevitable descent: 6 to 9 months as the technical underdog, hemorrhaging cash without generating profit, while their debt mounts to staggering heights.
Cast your mind back to 2023. OpenAI dominated. Yet the tendency since then tells a darker story, an increasing swarm of competitors has methodically closed the gap. Recently, several have surpassed them entirely.
The projection is what seals the coffin. That's why no ace hidden up their sleeve will save them. Even if such a card exists, its advantage will prove fleeting.
OpenAI cannot maintain leadership across nearly every domain. Yet they must to justify their astronomical valuation and theoretical capacity to service their debt. This creates a paradox: They also cannot excel at any single thing, because resources get diluted across multiple fronts to maintain the illusion. They lack the ability to concentrate where they might actually dominate.
But isn't OpenAI the best at heavy reasoning in early 2026?
I said OpenAI leads in nothing meaningful at this point. Sure, certain benchmarks show them ahead in complex reasoning tasks. So what? What they've truly mastered is burning investor money.
Their approach? Throw nearly unlimited computational resources at extended thinking sessions (30+ minutes), consuming massive amounts of power, incinerating those Benjamins to claim a pyrrhic victory. The economics don't work; user subscription fees cannot cover these costs. Not even close.
No, they have no genuine lead other than capital. And that lifeline is fraying rapidly.
The Deals That Were Too Good to Last
OpenAI supposedly had a killer arrangement with Nvidia. You give me your money, and with your money I'll buy your expensive hardware. OpenAI had no qualms with this cycle; they could theoretically repeat it infinitely. But Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently emerged and essentially declared that deal worthless. No more free money flowing their direction.
Then there's Microsoft. Surprise: they had an even sweeter arrangement. I'll give you my money, and with my money you purchase my massive Azure cloud computing infrastructure and data center services. Plus, I'll pay you for the AI capabilities I'm funding. Beautiful, right?
More recently, though, Microsoft appears to be distancing itself from OpenAI, announcing plans to develop its own models. The umbilical cord is being severed.
Update: The Final Lead Vanishes
They just lost their last remaining advantage in "heavy reasoning" and the race toward AGI (achieved primarily through wasteful resource allocation). Gemini 3 Deep Think claimed the throne, with Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking close behind.
They're done.
I originally titled this piece "RIP 2015-2026," but opted for a slightly more conservative timeline. Call it mercy.
